Shandong Feed: Hog-to-Poultry Shift

Statistics from China's largest feed-producing province show steep decline in swine feed output this year as impacts of African swine fever took hold, but gains in poultry feed offset the decline.

Shandong Province January-April feed production statistics show a 27.5-percent in swine feed output from a year earlier, but poultry feed production was up 8.6 percent, leaving overall output in the province unchanged from year-earlier levels. The data seem to confirm sharp declines in swine numbers due to African swine fever, but they also indicate that expansion of the poultry sector is muting the impact on feed production. (The report did not reveal statistics on feed for egg-laying poultry, aquaculture, or ruminants). Shandong was China's top feed producer during 2018 and accounts for about 10 percent of China's swine feed and more than a third of poultry feed output, according to a January report on last year's feed output.

Shandong Province manufactured feed output, January-April 2019
Type of feed	Output  (1000 metric tons)	Change from a year earlier (percent)
Formulated feed	10,455	0.31
Concentrate	306	-23.1
Additives/premix	232	7.9
Meat poultry	3,927	8.6
Swine feed	2,180	-27.5
Nursery/starter pigs	476	-46.0
Sows	272	-39.0
Finishing hogs	1,317	-16.6

Feed for sows and young pigs had the steepest declines from a year earlier: -39 percent for sow feed and -46 percent for nursery and starter pig feed. Feed for grower-finisher pigs was down 16.6 percent. However, the report also claims that April production of feed for nursery/starter pigs was up 4 percent from March, which the author interpreted as a sign that restocking of farms has begun while the number of finishing pigs continues to fall.

These year-on-year changes follow blistering 21.4-percent growth in Shandong feed output during 2018, according to the January report on last year's output. During 2018, poultry feed output grew 33.6 percent and swine feed output grew 11.2 percent. The report attributed the province's swine feed growth to high prices after outbreaks of African swine fever and claimed that Shandong had not had any reports of the virus (the first Shandong outbreak was reported in February 2019). The report also cited aggressive expansion in the province by companies such as New Hope-Liuhe, Muyuan, and Wens Group (which promote use of commercial feed supplied by the companies). The January report attributed 2018 growth in poultry feed output to a shift in meat consumption from pork to poultry and other meats as a shift due to aging of the population is accelerated by rapid spread of African swine fever.

Shandong Province 2018 annual manufactured feed output
Type of feed	Output (1000 metric tons)	Change from a year earlier (percent)
Total feed	35,670	21.4
Formula	33,770	23.6
Concentrate	1,180	-4.5
Premix	720	-12.6
Pig feed	9,100	11.2
Poultry feed	21,800	33.6