African Swine Fever Shakes Up China Pork Industry

Chinese officials insist the African swine fever (ASF) is under control, but many say the disease is much more widespread than indicated by the 100-plus officially confirmed cases. The Chinese pork industry has been disrupted by plunging prices during 2018, an ongoing environmental campaign to close polluting farms, and the rapid spread of ASF to 25 provinces in six months. Officials are circling the wagons and denying the problem is out of control, but reports of panic-slaughter and expectations of tight supplies and rising prices later in 2019 occasionally filter through.

• Echoing a series of statements from Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs officials this month, an Animal Disease Prevention and Control Center researcher insisted that ASF is under control and assured the public that officials follow strict procedures when the virus is discovered, closing down shipments of swine, depopulating and disinfecting farms, and conducting epidemiological investigations.
• The Disease center researcher blamed the spread of the disease on pork smuggled from foreign countries, travelers bringing pork from infected countries, food waste from international flights, wild pigs crossing the border, consumers' preference for freshly slaughtered pork that leads to long-distance transportation of pigs, poor sanitation among the "huge" number of backyard farmers, contaminated trucks and workers, and use of food waste to feed pigs. He noted that the disease's long incubation period means pigs may be contagious but show no clinical symptoms for 3 weeks.
• In Hebei Province, a person was detained and fined for disseminating text messages showing photos of dead pigs in a village purportedly hit by ASF in the Tangshan district. The message was widely circulated, generating responses such as, "Is pork safe to eat?" and "ASF has arrived!" Yesterday, officials claimed that their investigations found the pigs had died of some other unidentified disease after the weather turned cold. They said the person's message had "a bad effect."
• A farmer and pig dealer in Guiyang, Guizhou Province were arrested for conspiring to sell dead pigs to a slaughterhouse where inspectors discovered the pigs had died of ASF.
• Officials in a district outside Shanghai say they shut down backyard farms that previously held 50,000 pigs after ASF was discovered there during November. Last month a person was arrested for supplying pig farmers with food waste that was suspected as the source of the virus. Officials said the closed backyard farms were somehow replaced with 10 large-scale farms with combined 50,000-head capacity.
• Officials in Henan say they eliminated 980,000 backyard livestock and poultry farms last year in order to achieve the province's target for utilizing livestock waste set in the 13th five-year plan.
• A team of futures analysts toured Henan Province to investigate impacts of ASF and found the virus is having serious impact in northern counties of Henan although only two cases have officially been reported (the last one officially reported was in October). The analysts were told that some large-scale farms in that region are panic-slaughtering animals or cutting back production dramatically. Slaughter facilities said large numbers of sows including pregnant animals were delivered for slaughter last year. Another farmer said farms are slaughtering small pigs at 50-80 kg at a discount price to avoid the cost of raising them to customary slaughter weight.
• The futures analysts heard local people expect Henan's swine production capacity to shrink 30 percent this year and hog prices are expected to go up in the second half of 2019. Farms reportedly faced a "gamble" of maintaining capacity to take advantage of high prices later this year or disposing of animals to avoid the risk of ASF infection. Farmers in southern counties of Henan say their counties are free of the disease and there is no panic-slaughter there.
• Futures analysts were told that tight credit and unpaid debts are a widespread problem for Henan hog farms. One farmer said family farms with 100-300 sows are better positioned to survive due to their lower needs for working capital compared with big farms. 
• Farmers in Henan said they are being cautious about purchasing pigs by maintaining their own sows, but another person says his company is pushing the "company plus farmer" model in which farmers raise pigs under the company's ownership. One farmer said he no longer buys corn from northeastern provinces and another uses only his own trucks due to ASF fears.
• Slaughter companies in Henan say their storage facilities are nearly filled with frozen pork inventory which they anticipate selling later in 2019 when prices rise.
• One veterinary medicine dealer in Henan told the futures analysts that low-protein diets may reduce animals' resistance, and he worried that the disease could become even more serious.
• The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the swine inventory at the end of 2018 was 428 million head, down 3 percent from 2017. 
• The Ministry of Agriculture reported the swine inventory at fixed points where they collect data was down 4.8 percent from a year earlier in December 2018 and the inventory of productive sows was down 8.3 percent.