Brazil Supplied 91% of China's Soy Imports July-November

China relied even more heavily on Brazil for its soybeans during this year's trade war. China has not found new soybean suppliers to replace the United States.

China's customs data show that China obtained 75 percent of its soybean imports from Brazil during January-November 2018. The 61.7 million metric tons imported from Brazil during those months is up 12.7 mmt from the same period in 2017.

Brazil supplied 91 percent of China's soybean imports from July to November--the months when the 25-percent retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans was in effect.

China Soybean imports, January-November 2018
From:	2017	2018	Change
	Million metric tons
Brazil	49.0	61.7	+12.7
United States	26.7	16.6	-10.1
Argentina	5.9	1.3	-4.7
Uruguay	2.4	1.0	-1.4
Canada	1.5	1.0	-0.5
Russia	0.4	0.7	0.3
Others	0.0	0.1	0.0
Total	86.0	82.3	-3.6

China's soybean imports from the United States totaled 16.6 mmt through November, down 10.1 mmt year-on-year. Imports from Argentina and Uruguay combined were just 2.3 mmt this year, down 6.1 mmt year-on-year. Imports from Canada were also down this year. Imports from Russia were up 300,000 metric tons, but most of those imports came in the first two months of the year, before the trade war started. China's soybean imports for the calendar year through November totaled 82.3 mmt, down 3.7 mmt from a year earlier.

China went from relying mainly on two suppliers of imported soybeans in 2017 to one supplier this year--Brazil. Imports of U.S. soybeans have been negligible since September, according to China's customs data.

China's monthly soybean imports from Brazil have been ahead of last year's in 9 of 11 months so far this year. Imports from the United States have fallen short of last year's totals in 8 of 11 months. China's shift away from U.S. soybeans began in January-March, before the trade war officially began.

Brazilian sellers did not use their monopoly to raise prices on Chinese buyers. The average cost of imported Brazilian soybeans (calculated from customs data) peaked at $447 per metric ton in June and July, then plunged to $428/mt in September--less than the value of U.S. shipments that arrived that month (which does not include tariffs). The average value of Brazilian imports rebounded to $427/mt in October and November.