2018 Grain Output Figures Announced

China's National Bureau of Statistics estimates of 2018 grain output released December 14 show a modest 0.6-percent decline from a year ago. Officials are ambivalent, on one hand explaining that the decline was engineered to correct excess supplies, while also expressing angst about the future course of production and potential threats to food security.

The 2018 output of 657.89 million metric tons is down 0.6 percent from 661.6 mmt in 2017. The grain statistics incorporate revisions made after the Bureau's third agricultural census that were incorporated in the 2018 China Statistical Yearbook released last month. (An estimate of 617.9 mmt for 2017 had been released earlier this year--prior to revisions). China's official definition of "grain" (traditional food crops, although corn and soybeans are now used primarily as animal feed) includes cereals, soybeans and other beans, and tubers Soybeans are included in the "bean" category; the soybean output figure shown below was calculated from area and yield figures provided in an accompanying article explaining the data.

2018 China Grain Production Statistics
Item	Area	Production	Yield
	Mil ha	Mil tons	KG/ha
All grains	117.037	657.89	5621
Cereals	99.685	610.19	6121
Rice	30.189	212.13	7027
Wheat	24.268	131.43	5416
Corn	42.129	257.33	6108
Beans	10.171	19.14	1882
:Soybeans	8.400	16.00	1905
Tubers	7.180	28.56	3978

The Bureau explained that crop-planting structure changed in response to orders issued by the communist party central committee and the State Council in the "No. 1 Document" issued in 2018. Planted area was reduced for rice and corn--"crops with relatively large inventories." Double-cropping of rice was reduced by 531,000 hectares in Hunan and Jiangxi Provinces, and Heilongjiang reduced rice area in its northern low-temperature belts. Nevertheless, figures indicate that corn output declined by only 1.6 million tons and rice output declined by 600,000 metric tons. Wheat output was down 1.7 million tons. Farmers were urged to expand soybean production this year, but the figures given suggest soybean output increased by only 700,000 metric tons. The Bureau cited five provinces that used subsidies and other measures to increase soybean production this year.

Changes in China grain output, 2017-18
Crop	Change in area	Change in yield	Change in output
	1000 ha	Kg/ha	Mil tons
Rice	-558	109.5	-0.6
Wheat	-24	-66.0	-1.7
Corn	-269	0.0	-1.6
Bean crops	120	49.5	0.7
:Soybeans	155	52.5	0.7

According to the Bureau, crop growing conditions were generally favorable, with no widespread "disasters," although a decline in wheat yield was attributed to "disasters" affecting summer grain. Fall grain crops had early spring and summer drought in some regions that were offset by favorable conditions in September, the Bureau said. Directives by Xi Jinping and the State Council were said to have prevented losses by stimulating effective flood-prevention and drought-mitigation work.

Bureau officials indicate that the reductions in grain output are an ongoing "structural adjustment" intended to correct problems of excess supply, and they assure readers that the country has ample inventories on hand after years of producing large amounts of grain. However, the Bureau follows this up with worries that "the base of grain production is not yet stable," remains vulnerable to weather, "the structure is not rational, returns are low, and problems have been fully solved." The Bureau concludes that this means China still has a ways to go to achieve food security.