China African Swine Fever Scattered Far and Wide

China has had 57 confirmed cases of African Swine Fever (ASF) in 100 days. New cases are being confirmed at a rate of nearly 1 per day, and they are widely scattered across the country with no discernible pattern.

Five cases were confirmed in August after the first outbreak, 18 in September, 25 in October, and 9 in the first 12 days of November. Cases are dispersed across the country in 17 provinces, with 14 cases in Liaoning, 9 in Anhui, and 6 in Hunan Province (see map below). Single cases have been confirmed in four new provinces this month: Chongqing, Hubei, Fujian, and Jiangxi Provinces, but November outbreaks have occurred in widely dispersed regions. The latest case was reported November 9 in Anhui Province. It's very possible cases are under-reported. Some localities have begun offering cash rewards to encourage citizens to report ASF cases.

Cases officially announced on Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs web site.

Note: this is an old map that does not show the boundary between Chongqing and Sichuan.

Soozhu.com observes that there is no clear pattern to the outbreaks, but the cases have followed a north-to-south progression. Mapping the outbreaks (see below) indicates several different clusters in the northeast near borders with Russia, Mongolia and North Korea; Anhui and neighboring provinces; and outbreaks in a string of counties in the mountainous southwestern region that could be connected to the Myanmar-Laos border. A number of cases have occurred near ports, including the biggest cluster near ports in Liaoning Province.

Soozhu.com reports that many of the outbreaks have been on farms that fed restaurant waste to pigs, including many in Anhui Province. A number of localities in China have offered cash rewards to citizens who report cases of farms illegally feeding garbage to pigs or cases of African swine fever. According to Soozhu, a futures analysis company estimates that 5%-10% of China's pigs are fed on restaurant waste, equivalent to 35-to-70 million pigs a year, suggesting that a crackdown on these farms could significantly curtail the pork supply.

A number of large-scale farms have also been infected, and a new development suggests that swill-feeding may not be the main concern: on November 9 the ASF virus was detected in commercial feed tested in Anhui Province. The feed was supplied by a subsidiary of a well-known Chinese company.

Confirmed ASF mortalities constitute a tiny fraction of China's swine herd. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has reported 4,474 swine deaths from ASF since August, and 6,022 illnesses. Farms with confirmed outbreaks held 75,193 animals, but the National Bureau of Statistics estimated that China had 429 million swine on farms at the end of September. The number of swine was down 10.18 million from a year earlier, but the Bureau attributed the decline to closure of farms to comply with environmental regulations. According to China's CPI, pork prices in October were 2.3% lower than a year ago.

The ASF virus has affected pork supplies in many regions through bans on the transport of pigs and pork products between most major pork-producing and consuming provinces. Soozhu.com says the price of live hogs ranges from RMB 10.32 to 18.57 per kg (about $67 to $120 per 100 lb.), an unusually wide range. Soozhu.com says that the supply of hogs cannot meet demand due to curtailment of transportation and demolition of farms in some provinces.