African Swine Fever: 18 Cases, Divergent Price Trends

With new cases confirmed recently in Inner Mongolia, Anhui, and Heilongjiang Provinces, China has had 18 outbreaks of African Swine Fever from August 1 to September 17. Cases have been widely spread, but Anhui Province has been hardest hit with 8 confirmed cases so far, including the latest on Monday. Other cases were confirmed on farms in Inner Mongolia and Henan Province last week.


China has had 18 cases of African swine fever confirmed as of September 17

Emergency measures have been adopted to cull swine, disinfect farms and stop transportation of pigs in the areas surrounding farms where the virus has been discovered. There is great uncertainty about the impact of African swine fever on retail markets and prices.

The Ministry of Commerce issued a notice ordering local commerce officials to pay close attention to possible effects of African swine fever and other animal diseases on food markets during the mid-Autumn Festival next week and the National Day Holiday coming up in early October. Local officials are ordered to carefully monitor pork supplies, keep prices stable and ensure that meat is safe. To avoid disruption in supplies, officials are advised to arrange deals between suppliers and vendors in their region.

A notice in Henan Province forbids loads of pigs on trucks bearing 

license plates from several other districts of Henan:
Xinxiang, Jiaozuo, and Zhengzhou. Source: Soozhu.com

African swine fever's impact on China's pork market is uncertain. Hog prices have risen in regions that rely on shipping in hogs from the hinterland, and prices are falling in major production regions. Prices are highest in eastern regions that rely on shipping in hogs from other regions. Similarly, prices have climbed to a high level in the western region. At the other end of the spectrum, prices are depressed in the northeast--the first region where African swine fever appeared in China and which has been hit hardest by bans on outbound shipment of hogs. The north and central regions have had the most outbreaks and are also seeing sinking prices. Prices in the South surged early this month but have since begun to fall.

Adapted from zhue.com