China Grain Output Up 0.3% in 2017

China produced 617.9 million metric tons of grain in 2017, according to a communique issued by the country's National Bureau of Statistics yesterday. An accompanying analysis noted that this was China's second-largest grain crop ever and explained that production growth of 0.3 percent reflected a nationwide structural adjustment campaign ordered by the communist party this year to shift crop area from corn--which has "relatively large inventories"--to minor grains and bean crops, and to expand production of other nongrain crops like peanuts and medicinal herbs. Weather was favorable--a rapid increase in temperatures came after spring planting, rainfall and sunshine were adequate, and weather remained warm near the harvest--and government officials followed orders from the communist party leadership to avert losses from floods.

Overall, grain production was up 1.5 mmt, which reflects a 3.6-mmt decline in corn output offset by minor gains in rice, wheat, minor grains and beans. The overall yield rose 1 percent as the high-yielding corn crop (6,091 kg/ha) was replaced by lower-yielding beans (1,085 kg/ha) and minor grains on land concentrated in the "sickle" region of marginal production areas running from the Russian border through the arid northwest down to mountainous regions in the southwest.

Corn production is estimated at 215.9 mmt, down 3.6 mmt from last year. The NBS report did not include an estimate of soybean output, but the accompanying analysis revealed that soybean area planted increased 8.1 percent to reach 7.8 million hectares in 2017. In contrast, the Ministry of Agriculture's CASDE report reflects a larger shift from corn to soybeans: CASDE estimated 2017 corn output at 210 mmt and includes a more aggressive 13-percent increase in soybean area. NBS thinks production of the main food grain crops, rice and wheat, remained relatively steady, with production of each rising 0.7 percent.

China grain production, 2017
	Planted area	Yield	Production
	1000 ha	kg/ha	1000 mt
All "grain" crops	112,220	5,506	617,907
By season:
Summer grain	27,410	5,119	140,315
Early rice	5,463	5,810	31,740
Fall crops	79,346	5,619	445,852
By crop:
Cereals	92,930	6,075	564,549
corn	35,445	6,091	215,891
rice	30,176	6,912	208,560
wheat	23,988	5,410	129,774
Beans	10,352	1,852	19,169
soybeans	7,800	na	na
Tubers	8,937	3,825	34,189

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, preliminary estimates, 8 Dec., 2017.

China change in grain output, 2016-17
	million metric tons	Percent
All grains	1.65	0.3
Corn	-3.65	-0.7
Rice	1.50	0.7
Wheat	0.95	0.7
Other grains	2.90	4.8
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics preliminary estimates, 8 December 2017