The 2016/17 estimate of corn imports was raised by 200,000 mt to 1 million metric tons. According to MOA, the corn auctioned from reserves has not met demands of processors, so some switched to imports. As of yesterday's auctions, 40 mmt of corn had been auctioned from China's reserves since May. However, the MOA balance sheet estimates that the supply of corn for 2016/17 will still exceed consumption by 9.7 mmt.
MOA revised its estimate of 2017/18 corn yields downward due to pest problems in certain areas--although the yield is still historically high. Corn production for 2017/18 will fall to 210.7 mmt, and consumption will exceed supply by 3.17 mmt in the coming market year, according to the MOA estimates.
| China corn supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, August 2017) | |||||
| Item | Unit | 2016/17 July | 2016/17 August | 2017/18 July | 2017/18 August |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 36,760 | 36,760 | 35,496 | 35,496 |
| Harvested area | 1000 ha | 36,760 | 36,760 | 35,496 | 35,496 |
| Yield | Kg/ha | 5,973 | 5,973 | 5,970 | 5,936 |
| Production | MMT | 219.57 | 219.57 | 211.91 | 210.7 |
| Imports | MMT | 0.8 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Consumption | MMT | 210.72 | 210.72 | 214.57 | 214.57 |
| --Food | MMT | 7.82 | 7.82 | 7.89 | 7.89 |
| --Feed | MMT | 133.03 | 133.03 | 135.03 | 135.03 |
| --Industrial use | MMT | 58.25 | 58.25 | 60.25 | 60.25 |
| --Seed | MMT | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| --Loss and other | MMT | 10.01 | 10.01 | 9.83 | 9.83 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Surplus | MMT | 9.50 | 9.70 | -1.96 | -3.17 |
MOA made no changes in the soybean S&D.
| China soybean supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, August 2017) | |||||
| Item | Unit | 2016/17 July | 2016/17 August | 2017/18 July | 2017/18 August |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 7,208 | 7,208 | 8,196 | 8,196 |
| Harvested area | 1000 ha | 7,202 | 7,202 | 8,196 | 8,196 |
| Yield | Kg/ha | 1796 | 1796 | 1797 | 1797 |
| Production | MMT | 12.94 | 12.94 | 14.73 | 14.73 |
| Imports | MMT | 91.55 | 91.55 | 93.16 | 93.16 |
| Consumption | MMT | 106.16 | 106.16 | 108.63 | 108.63 |
| --Crushing | MMT | 91.09 | 91.09 | 92.50 | 92.50 |
| --Food | MMT | 11.18 | 11.18 | 12.04 | 12.04 |
| --Seed | MMT | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| Loss and other | MMT | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.45 | 3.45 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Surplus | MMT | -1.81 | -1.81 | -0.97 | -0.97 |
Chinese authorities have sold off 2.15 mmt of their cotton reserves as of August 4. MOA adjusted 2016/17 cotton consumption up by 100,000 to reflect the success in selling cotton into the market. Estimated cotton imports were raised to 1.05 mmt. The 2016/17 ending inventory was adjusted downward by only 40,000 mt to 9.09 mmt.
Estimated cotton output for 2017/18 was adjusted upward to 5.28 mmt on both increased area and higher yield. Imports will be only 1 mmt, and consumption will exceed supply. The ending inventory will fall further to 7.46 mmt in 2017/18.
| China cotton supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, August 2017) | |||||
| Item | Unit | 2016/17 July | 2016/17 August | 2017/18 July | 2017/18 August |
| Begin inventory | MMT | 11.11 | 11.11 | 9.13 | 9.09 |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 3,100 | 3,100 | 3,200 | 3,293 |
| Yield | Kg/ha | 1,555 | 1,555 | 1,594 | 1,602 |
| Production | MMT | 4.82 | 4.82 | 5.10 | 5.28 |
| Imports | MMT | 1.00 | 1.05 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Consumption | MMT | 7.79 | 7.89 | 7.74 | 7.9 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| End Inventory | MMT | 9.13 | 9.09 | 7.49 | 7.46 |
MOA raised its estimate of 2016/17 soybean oil imports to accommodate increased demand from a growing stream of rural-urban migrants discovered by the National Bureau of Statistics in its report on economic growth for the first half of 2017. Exports of edible oils were raised due to increases in sales of specialty oil products.
| China edible oils supply and demand (Min Agriculture, August 2017) | |||||
| Item | Unit | 2016/17 July | 2016/17 August | 2017/18 July | 2017/18 August |
| Production | MMT | 27.06 | 27.06 | 27.21 | 27.28 |
| --Soy oil | MMT | 15.96 | 15.96 | 16.05 | 16.05 |
| --Rapeseed oil | MMT | 5.76 | 5.76 | 5.71 | 5.71 |
| --Peanut oil | MMT | 3.18 | 3.18 | 3.24 | 3.24 |
| Imports | MMT | 5.6 | 5.72 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| --Palm oil | MMT | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| --Rapeseed oil | MMT | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| --Soy oil | MMT | 0.58 | 0.70 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Consumption | MMT | 31.46 | 31.68 | 31.63 | 31.86 |
| --Urban | MMT | 21.5 | 22.92 | 21.65 | 23.12 |
| --Rural | MMT | 9.96 | 8.76 | 9.98 | 8.74 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.13 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Surplus | MMT | 1.07 | 0.93 | 1.66 | 1.49 |
| China sugar supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, August 2017) | |||||
| Item | Unit | 2016/17 July | 2016/17 August | 2017/18 July | 2017/18 August |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 1351 | 1351 | 1472 | 1472 |
| --sugar cane | 1000 ha | 1183 | 1183 | 1277 | 1277 |
| --sugar beets | 1000 ha | 168 | 168 | 195 | 195 |
| Yield | |||||
| --sugar cane | MT/ha | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| --sugar beets | MT/ha | 52.5 | 52.5 | 52.5 | 52.5 |
| Sugar output | MMT | 9.29 | 9.29 | 10.47 | 10.47 |
| --sugar cane | MMT | 8.24 | 8.24 | 9.23 | 9.23 |
| --sugar beets | MMT | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| Imports | MMT | 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Consumption | MMT | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Surplus | MMT | -2.78 | -3.18 | -1.4 | -1.4 |
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