| China soybean supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, July 2017) | |||||
| Item | Unit | 2016/17 June | 2016/17 July | 2017/18 June | 2017/18 July |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 7,156 | 7,208 | 7,899 | 8,196 |
| Harvested area | 1000 ha | 7,150 | 7,202 | 7,899 | 8,196 |
| Yield | Kg/ha | 1758 | 1796 | 1785 | 1797 |
| Production | MMT | 12.57 | 12.94 | 14.1 | 14.73 |
| Imports | MMT | 89.45 | 91.55 | 93.16 | 93.16 |
| Consumption | MMT | 103.69 | 106.16 | 108.59 | 108.63 |
| --Crushing | MMT | 89.01 | 91.09 | 92.50 | 92.50 |
| --Food | MMT | 11.18 | 11.18 | 12.04 | 12.04 |
| --Seed | MMT | 0.6 | 0.64 | 0.6 | 0.64 |
| Loss and other | MMT | 2.9 | 3.25 | 3.45 | 3.45 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Surplus | MMT | -1.81 | -1.81 | -1.55 | -0.97 |
The 2016/17 soybean import estimate was raised to 91.55 million metric tons, 2.1 mmt higher than the estimate made in June. CASDE explains that the higher estimate reflects mainly a larger use for crushing, which the authors attribute to increased demand for soybean meal. This, in turn, partly reflects recovery of pig and poultry inventories, but it also reflects substitution of soybean meal for shrinking imports of distillers dried grains (DDGS) and smaller supplies of other protein meals, they say. The decline in DDGS imports reflects antidumping duties imposed to curb imports from the United States (DDGS is used as a substitute both for corn and for soybean meal in China). The decline in other protein meals reflects largely a drop in rapeseed production as farmers in central China shifted land into wheat and other crops after the support price for rapeseed was abandoned in 2015. CASDE raised seed use of soybeans slightly, reflecting estimates of increased soybean area planted this spring. Loss and other uses of soybeans were also increased.
CASDE raised soybean production for 2017/18 to 14.73 mmt. CASDE estimates that imports of soybeans will reach 93.16 mmt in 2017/18. That represents an increase of only 1.6 mmt from 2016/17.
| China corn supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, July 2017) | |||||
| Item | Unit | 2016/17 June | 2016/17 July | 2017/18 June | 2017/18 July |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 36,760 | 36,760 | 35,590 | 35,496 |
| Harvested area | 1000 ha | 36,760 | 36,760 | 35,590 | 35,496 |
| Yield | Kg/ha | 5,973 | 5,973 | 5,947 | 5,970 |
| Production | MMT | 219.57 | 219.57 | 211.65 | 211.91 |
| Imports | MMT | 1 | 0.8 | 1 | 1 |
| Consumption | MMT | 210.72 | 210.72 | 214.07 | 214.57 |
| --Food | MMT | 7.82 | 7.82 | 7.89 | 7.89 |
| --Feed | MMT | 133.03 | 133.03 | 135.03 | 135.03 |
| --Industrial use | MMT | 58.25 | 58.25 | 59.75 | 60.25 |
| --Seed | MMT | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| --Loss and other | MMT | 10.01 | 10.01 | 9.83 | 9.83 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.3 | 0.15 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Surplus | MMT | 9.55 | 9.50 | -1.72 | -1.96 |
China has choked off corn imports to a trickle. The only change in the 2016/17 corn balance sheet is a cut in estimated imports from 1 mmt last month to just 800,000 mt this month. Corn imports for 2017/18 are estimated at 1 mmt.
CASDE cut its estimate for 2017/18 corn area due to a faster-than-expected decline in summer corn planting in Hebei, Shandong and Henan Provinces. Drought in eastern Inner Mongolia prompted some farmers to switch from corn to soybeans and minor grains. The corn yield is forecast at 5970 kg/ha, raised 23 kg from last month. CASDE says rains brought relief from drought conditions in parts of the north China plain which is very favorable for growth of spring and summer corn. The estimate of overall 2017/18 corn output was raised to 211.91 mmt. Industrial use of corn was raised by 500,000 mt.
CASDE explains that corn prices have been rising in China despite robust sales of corn from reserves due to constraints in transportation and moving corn out of storage. This has created spot shortages in some regions, CASDE said.
| China cotton supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, July 2017) | |||||
| Item | Unit | 2016/17 June | 2016/17 July | 2017/18 June | 2017/18 July |
| Begin inventory | MMT | 11.11 | 11.11 | 9.23 | 9.13 |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 3,100 | 3,100 | 3,200 | 3,200 |
| Yield | Kg/ha | 1,555 | 1,555 | 1,572 | 1,594 |
| Production | MMT | 4.82 | 4.82 | 5.03 | 5.10 |
| Imports | MMT | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| Consumption | MMT | 7.69 | 7.79 | 7.69 | 7.74 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| End Inventory | MMT | 9.23 | 9.13 | 7.66 | 7.49 |
Cotton auctions have injected 1.78 mmt of cotton reserves into the market as of July 7, 2017. CASDE raised 2016/17 cotton use by 100,000 mt to 7.79 mmt. Accordingly, ending cotton stocks for 2016/17 were reduced by 100,000 mt. No other changes were made in the 2016/17 cotton balance sheet.
Cotton imports remain at 1 mmt in 2016/17 and 2017/18 cotton imports were cut from 1.1 mmt last month to 1 mmt this month. Cotton yield for 2017/18 was raised, based on plenty of sun, adequate rainfall, and low levels of pest damage. Cotton production for 2017/18 was raised to 5.1 mmt. Estimated carry-out stocks for 2017/18 were reduced to 7.49 mmt, slightly less than annual consumption of 7.74 mmt estimated for 2017/18.
| China edible oils supply and demand (Min Agriculture, July 2017) | |||||
| Item | Unit | 2016/17 June | 2016/17 July | 2017/18 June | 2017/18 July |
| Production | MMT | 26.57 | 27.06 | 27.07 | 27.21 |
| --Soy oil | MMT | 15.58 | 15.96 | 15.92 | 16.05 |
| --Rapeseed oil | MMT | 5.64 | 5.76 | 5.71 | 5.71 |
| --Peanut oil | MMT | 3.18 | 3.18 | 3.24 | 3.24 |
| Imports | MMT | 5.6 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| --Palm oil | MMT | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| --Rapeseed oil | MMT | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| --Soy oil | MMT | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Consumption | MMT | 31.46 | 31.46 | 31.63 | 31.63 |
| --Urban | MMT | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.65 | 21.65 |
| --Rural | MMT | 9.96 | 9.96 | 9.98 | 9.98 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Surplus | MMT | 0.58 | 1.07 | 1.52 | 1.66 |
CASDE increased its estimate of edible oils production for 2016/17, reflecting increased imports of both soybeans and rapeseed. CASDE thinks increased soybean meal demand prompted greater imports of soybeans and consequently greater soybean oil production. Excess domestic reserves of rapeseed oil have been exhausted, leaving a deficit in the domestic market that is filled by crushing imported rapeseed. Imports and consumption of edible oils for 2016/17 were not changed this month. The increased crush of imported soybeans and rapeseed goes into higher ending stocks of edible oils. CASDE sees another increase in soybean oil production in 2017/18 and another surplus that will swell stocks of oils.
CASDE made no changes in the sugar balance sheet.
| China sugar supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, July 2017) | |||||
| Item | Unit | 2016/17 June | 2016/17 July | 2017/18 June | 2017/18 July |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 1351 | 1351 | 1472 | 1472 |
| --sugar cane | 1000 ha | 1183 | 1183 | 1277 | 1277 |
| --sugar beets | 1000 ha | 168 | 168 | 195 | 195 |
| Yield | |||||
| --sugar cane | MT/ha | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| --sugar beets | MT/ha | 52.5 | 52.5 | 52.5 | 52.5 |
| Sugar output | MMT | 9.29 | 9.29 | 10.47 | 10.47 |
| --sugar cane | MMT | 8.24 | 8.24 | 9.23 | 9.23 |
| --sugar beets | MMT | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| Imports | MMT | 3 | 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Consumption | MMT | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Surplus | MMT | -2.78 | -2.78 | -1.4 | -1.4 |
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