| China corn supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, June 2017) | |||||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 June | 2017/18 May | 2017/18 June |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 38,119 | 36,760 | 35,840 | 35,590 |
| Harvested area | 1000 ha | 38,119 | 36,760 | 35,840 | 35,590 |
| Yield | Kg/ha | 5,893 | 5,973 | 5,948 | 5,947 |
| Production | MMT | 224.63 | 219.57 | 213.18 | 211.65 |
| Imports | MMT | 5.52 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Consumption | MMT | 194.09 | 210.72 | 214.07 | 214.07 |
| --Food | MMT | 7.65 | 7.82 | 7.89 | 7.89 |
| --Feed | MMT | 121.01 | 133.03 | 135.03 | 135.03 |
| --Industrial use | MMT | 54.17 | 58.25 | 59.75 | 59.75 |
| --Seed | MMT | 1.7 | 1.61 | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| --Loss and other | MMT | 9.56 | 10.01 | 9.83 | 9.83 |
| Exports | MMT | 1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Surplus | MMT | 36.05 | 9.55 | -0.19 | -1.72 |
| *2015/16 import volume shown in CASDE should be 3.2 mmt | |||||
The decline in corn area estimated by CASDE is 3.2 percent, slightly less than the 4 percent drop estimated by the National Bureau of Statistics planting intentions survey earlier this year. Another survey of over 5200 farmers in 22 provinces conducted in April found farmers planned to cut corn acreage by 10.9 percent.
The Ministry of Agriculture sent drought mitigation teams this week to western Liaoning, southeast Inner Mongolia, western Jilin, western Heilongjiang, northern Hebei and the Shandong peninsula. These areas have suffered from low rainfall, high temperatures, and windy conditions since April.
CASDE's June soybean S&D is unchanged from May. Some farmers in western Liaoning and easter Inner Mongolia were able to replant soybeans after rains came May 21-23, but young soybean plants were damaged by a late frost in parts of Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang. Soybean area is setimated to be up 10.4% in 2017/18. Imports are expected to hit 89 mmt for 2016/17 and 93 mmt for 2017/18.
| China soybean supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, June 2017) | |||||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 June | 2017/18 May | 2017/18 June |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 6,590 | 7,156 | 7,899 | 7,899 |
| Harvested area | 1000 ha | 6,590 | 7,150 | 7,899 | 7,899 |
| Yield | Kg/ha | 1762 | 1758 | 1785 | 1785 |
| Production | MMT | 11.61 | 12.57 | 14.1 | 14.1 |
| Imports | MMT | 83.23 | 89.45 | 93.16 | 93.16 |
| Consumption | MMT | 96.67 | 103.69 | 108.59 | 108.59 |
| --Crushing | MMT | 82.89 | 89.01 | 92.50 | 92.50 |
| --Food | MMT | 10.35 | 11.18 | 12.04 | 12.04 |
| --Seed | MMT | 0.54 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Loss and other | MMT | 2.89 | 2.9 | 3.45 | 3.45 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Surplus | MMT | -1.95 | -1.81 | -1.55 | -1.55 |
Cotton yield for 2017/18 was raised slightly, on good growing conditions. Imports were increased 100,000 mt to 1.1 mmt. Cotton stocks are expected to fall nearly 1.6 mmt in 2017/18.
| China cotton supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, June 2017) | |||||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 June | 2017/18 May | 2017/18 June |
| Begin inventory | MMT | 12.8 | 11.11 | 9.23 | 9.23 |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 3,267 | 3,100 | 3,200 | 3,200 |
| Yield | Kg/ha | 1,510 | 1,555 | 1,523 | 1,572 |
| Production | MMT | 4.93 | 4.82 | 4.88 | 5.03 |
| Imports | MMT | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| Consumption | MMT | 7.59 | 7.69 | 7.59 | 7.69 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| End Inventory | MMT | 9.13 | 9.23 | 7.61 | 7.66 |
2016/17 China edible oil production is estimated at 26.57 mmt, up 270,000 mt from last month’s estimate. Cottonseed and sunflower oil production is expected to rise because of better cotton yields, and increased sunflower imports. Soybean oil production was reduced by 40,000 mt due to a downward adjustment in the proportion of domestic soybeans used for oil.
| China edible oils supply and demand (Min Agriculture, June 2017) | |||||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 June | 2017/18 May | 2017/18 June |
| Production | MMT | 25.29 | 26.57 | 26.85 | 27.07 |
| --Soy oil | MMT | 14.74 | 15.58 | 15.92 | 15.92 |
| --Rapeseed oil | MMT | 5.6 | 5.64 | 5.71 | 5.71 |
| --Peanut oil | MMT | 3 | 3.18 | 3.24 | 3.24 |
| Imports | MMT | 5.81 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| --Palm oil | MMT | 3.39 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| --Rapeseed oil | MMT | 0.77 | 0.75 | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| --Soy oil | MMT | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Consumption | MMT | 31.29 | 31.46 | 31.63 | 31.63 |
| --Urban | MMT | 21.01 | 21.5 | 21.65 | 21.65 |
| --Rural | MMT | 10.28 | 9.96 | 9.98 | 9.98 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Surplus | MMT | -0.32 | 0.58 | 1.3 | 1.52 |
The 2017/18 estimate of sugar area is 14.72 million hectares, up 9% from 2016/17. Sugar cane area is estimated up 7.9% from last year; sugar beet area is up 16.1%. This month’s estimate of 2016/17 sugar imports is 3 mmt, reduced 500,000 mt from last month’s estimate. The forecast for 2017/18 sugar imports is 3.2 mmt, adjusted down 300,000 mt from last month. The main reason is the implementation of safeguard measures starting from May 22. Duties will be assessed on imports of sugar outside of the tariff rate quota for 3 years.
| China sugar supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, June 2017) | |||||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 June | 2017/18 May | 2017/18 June |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 1423 | 1351 | 1472 | 1472 |
| --sugar cane | 1000 ha | 1295 | 1183 | 1277 | 1277 |
| --sugar beets | 1000 ha | 128 | 168 | 195 | 195 |
| Yield | |||||
| --sugar cane | MT/ha | 60.3 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| --sugar beets | MT/ha | 53.85 | 52.5 | 52.5 | 52.5 |
| Sugar output | MMT | 8.7 | 9.29 | 10.47 | 10.47 |
| --sugar cane | MMT | 7.85 | 8.24 | 9.23 | 9.23 |
| --sugar beets | MMT | 0.85 | 1.05 | 1.24 | 1.24 |
| Imports | MMT | 3.73 | 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 |
| Consumption | MMT | 15.2 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Exports | MMT | -2.92 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Surplus | MMT | -2.32 | -2.78 | -1.1 | -1.4 |
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