Feed use of corn for 2016/17 was revised downward by 500,000 mt due to low inventories of swine and continued high imports of corn substitutes--sorghum and barley. However, 2016/17 soybean consumption was raised by 940,000 mt due to an increase in consumption of soybean meal for feed.
Corn imports for 2016/17 were revised upward to 1 mmt, which CASDE authors attribute to high operation rates by industrial processors in the northeast (the logic is not clear here, especially since the CASDE made no change in consumption of corn for industrial processing) and an increase in imports of cheap corn from Ukraine. (Note: the CASDE balance sheet has included the wrong 2015/16 corn import number since February.)
| China corn supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, April 2017) |
||||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 Mar | 2016/17 Apr |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 38,117 | 36,026 | 36,026 |
| Harvested area | 1000 ha | 38,117 | 36,021 | 36,021 |
| Yield | Kg/ha | 5,892 | 5,978 | 5,978 |
| Production | MMT | 224.58 | 215.33 | 215.33 |
| Imports | MMT | 5.52 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Consumption | MMT | 194.09 | 211.22 | 210.72 |
| --Food | MMT | 7.65 | 7.82 | 7.82 |
| --Feed | MMT | 121.01 | 133.53 | 133.03 |
| --Industrial use | MMT | 54.17 | 58.25 | 58.25 |
| --Seed | MMT | 1.7 | 1.61 | 1.61 |
| --Loss and other | MMT | 9.56 | 10.01 | 10.01 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.01 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Surplus | MMT | 35.99 | 4.41 | 5.11 |
| *2015/16 import volume shown in CASDE should be 3.2 mmt; surplus is also overstated. | ||||
Soybean imports for 2016/17 were revised upward to 86.55 mmt, 1.24 mmt more than estimated last month. CASDE expects soybean import demand to be stimulated by low world prices attributed to a record harvest of South American soybeans. CASDE explains that the expected increase in soybean meal consumption is due to its price advantage over other feeds.
| China soybean supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, April 2017) |
||||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 Mar | 2016/17 Apr |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 6,590 | 7,156 | 7,156 |
| Harvested area | 1000 ha | 6,590 | 7,150 | 7,150 |
| Yield | Kg/ha | 1,762 | 1758 | 1758 |
| Production | MMT | 11.61 | 12.57 | 12.57 |
| Imports | MMT | 82.89 | 85.31 | 86.55 |
| Consumption | MMT | 96.67 | 99.87 | 100.81 |
| --Crushing | MMT | 82.89 | 85.50 | 86.12 |
| --Food | MMT | 10.35 | 11.18 | 11.18 |
| --Seed | MMT | 0.54 | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| Loss and other | MMT | 2.89 | 2.58 | 2.9 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.11 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Surplus | MMT | -1.96 | -2.19 | -1.89 |
CASDE revised its estimate of 2016/17 edible oil production upward by 220,000 mt to 26.11 mmt. This reflects mainly a 200,000-mt increase in soybean oil production, which in turn reflects larger imports of soybeans. Rapeseed oil production has been revised downward by 10,000 mt due to poor growing conditions in some regions.
| China edible oils supply and demand (Min Agriculture, April 2017) | ||||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 Mar | 2016/17 Apr |
| Production | MMT | 25.3 | 25.89 | 26.11 |
| --Soy oil | MMT | 14.74 | 15.17 | 15.37 |
| --Rapeseed oil | MMT | 5.6 | 5.61 | 5.6 |
| --Peanut oil | MMT | 3.01 | 3.18 | 3.18 |
| Imports | MMT | 5.81 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| --Palm oil | MMT | 3.39 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| --Rapeseed oil | MMT | 0.77 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| --Soy oil | MMT | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Consumption | MMT | 31.17 | 31.43 | 31.43 |
| --Urban | MMT | 20.95 | 21.4 | 21.4 |
| --Rural | MMT | 10.22 | 10.03 | 10.03 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Surplus | MMT | -0.18 | -0.07 | 0.15 |
No changes were made in the cotton S&D.
| China cotton supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, April 2017) | ||||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 Mar | 2016/17 Apr |
| Begin inventory | MMT | 12.8 | 11.11 | 11.11 |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 3,267 | 3,100 | 3,100 |
| Yield | Kg/ha | 1,510 | 1,523 | 1,523 |
| Production | MMT | 4.93 | 4.72 | 4.72 |
| Imports | MMT | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Consumption | MMT | 7.56 | 7.59 | 7.59 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| End Inventory | MMT | 11.11 | 9.13 | 9.13 |
CASDE revised its estimate of 2016/17 sugar output downward by 450,000 metric tons to 9.25 mmt. Agricultural officials on the ground have observed that area planted in sugar is less than previously estimated.
| China sugar supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, April 2017) | ||||
| Item | Unit | 2015/16 | 2016/17 Mar | 2016/17 Apr |
| Planted area | 1000 ha | 1423 | 1433 | 1349 |
| --sugar cane | 1000 ha | 1295 | 1270 | 1181 |
| --sugar beets | 1000 ha | 128 | 163 | 168 |
| Yield | ||||
| --sugar cane | MT/ha | 60.3 | 60 | 60 |
| --sugar beets | MT/ha | 53.85 | 52.5 | 52.5 |
| Sugar output | MMT | 8.7 | 9.7 | 9.25 |
| --sugar cane | MMT | 7.85 | 8.65 | 8.22 |
| --sugar beets | MMT | 0.85 | 1.05 | 1.03 |
| Imports | MMT | 3.73 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Consumption | MMT | 15.2 | 15 | 15 |
| Exports | MMT | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Surplus | MMT | -2.92 | -1.87 | -2.32 |
No comments:
Post a Comment