China MOA S&D Estimates (Nov 2016)

China's Ministry of Agriculture's (MOA) November China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report raised its estimate of the country's 2016/17 corn crop by 1.15 million metric tons (mmt), reflecting a higher yield compared with October's estimate. They attribute the higher yield to a frost that came 5-10 days later than usual in northeastern provinces. Imports for 2016/17 were reduced to 1 mmt this month as MOA determined that the drop in Chinese corn prices had rendered imported corn uncompetitive. Industrial use was increased by 500,000 metric tons due to subsidies for corn processors in northeastern provinces. Loss was increased by 200,000 metric tons as a result of rain and snow in the northeast that degraded quality of some corn.

China corn supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, November 2016)
Item	Unit	2015/16	2016/17 Nov.	Change from Oct
Planted area	1000 ha	38,117	36,026
Harvested area	1000 ha	38,117	35,990
Yield	Kg/ha	5892	5935	+32
Production	MMT	224.58	213.6	+1.15
Imports	MMT	3.2	1.0	-0.8
Consumption	MMT	194.05	210.27	+0.7
--Food	MMT	7.65	7.72
--Feed	MMT	121.01	133.48
--Industrial use	MMT	54.17	57.45	+0.5
--Seed	MMT	1.66	1.61
Loss and other	MMT	9.56	10.01	+0.2
Exports	MMT	0.01	0.5
Surplus	MMT	33.72	3.83	-0.35

The MOA has whittled down its estimate of the 2016/17 corn surplus from about 10 mmt in July-August to just 3.8 mmt this month. Production and import estimates have been scaled back, and consumption has been boosted.

There were few changes in MOA's balance sheets for other major commodities. MOA's estimate of soybean imports was raised by 1.8 mmt to 85.31 mmt. That increase is slightly larger than the increase in soybean crushing estimated for 2016/17. MOA explains that increased swine inventories will spur the larger crush due to increased demand for protein meal. However, MOA says slower 2.5-percent growth in soybean imports is due to stricter environmental protection which is causing swine numbers to decline in some southern provinces.

China soybean supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, November 2016)
Item	Unit	2015/16	2016/17 Nov.	Change from Oct
Planted area	1000 ha	6,590	7156
Harvested area	1000 ha	6,590	7150
Yield	Kg/ha	1,762	1748
Production	MMT	11.61	12.5
Imports	MMT	81.42	85.31	+1.81
Consumption	MMT	94.76	99.72	+1.52
--Crushing	MMT	81.00	85.50	+1.50
--Food	MMT	10.35	11.18
--Seed	MMT	0.54	0.56
Loss and other	MMT	2.87	2.48	+0.02
Exports	MMT	0.11	0.20
Surplus	MMT	-1.84	-2.11	+0.29

There was only a slight reduction in cotton stocks in the November balance sheet compared with last month. Modest imports, declining production and nearly steady consumption will reduce cotton stocks from 11.1 mmt to 9.27 mmt over the course of 2016/17.

China cotton supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, November 2016)
Item	Unit	2015/16	2016/17 Nov.	Change from Oct
Begin inventory	MMT	12.8	11.11	-0.02
Planted area	1000 ha	33	31
Yield	Kg/ha	1,510	1526	-18
Production	MMT	4.93	4.73	-0.05
Imports	MMT	0.96	0.97
Consumption	MMT	7.54	7.52
Exports	MMT	0.02	0.02
End Inventory	MMT	11.13	9.27	-0.08

China edible oils supply and demand (Ministry of Agriculture, November 2016)
Item	Unit	2015/16	2016/17 Nov.	Change from Oct
Production	MMT	25.03	25.81	+0.48
--Soy oil	MMT	14.44	15.17	+0.29
--Rapeseed oil	MMT	5.63	5.55	+0.18
--Peanut oil	MMT	3.01	3.18	+0.02
Imports	MMT	5.58	5.5	+0.10
--Palm oil	MMT	3.42	3.2
--Rapeseed oil	MMT	0.74	0.75
--Soy oil	MMT	0.65	0.58
Consumption	MMT	31.17	31.38
--Urban	MMT	20.41	20.55
--Rural	MMT	10.76	10.83
Exports	MMT	0.11	0.13
Surplus	MMT	-0.66	-0.19	+0.58

China sugar supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, November 2016)
Item	Unit	2015/16	2016/17 Nov.	Change from Oct
Planted area	1000 ha	1435	1433
--sugar cane	1000 ha	1301	1270
--sugar beets	1000 ha	134	163
Yield	MT/ha	54.38	56.25	+1.87
--sugar cane	MT/ha	60.75	60
--sugar beets	MT/ha	48	52.5	+3.75
Sugar output	MMT	8.7	9.9
--sugar cane	MMT	7.85	8.85
--sugar beets	MMT	0.85	1.05
Imports	MMT	3.5	3.5
Consumption	MMT	15.2	15.1
Exports	MMT	0.16	0.07
Surplus	MMT	-3.16	-1.77	-1.67