Blizzard of numbers hides poor prospects for $17-bil ag purchase target

Prospects for U.S. agricultural exports to China are still murky after Chinese negotiators dropped a 1619-item list of items that will be "considered" for tariff reductions after last week's Trump-Xi summit. The list was released by the White House as part of a plan for establishing a U.S.-China Board of Trade composed of Chinese and U.S. officials that aims to "optimize" trade between the two countries. Each country released a "30-for-30" list of products that the U.S. and China will consider for reductions of country-specific tariffs. Each list apparently is composed of commodities that had $30 billion in trade in 2024, the year before the current trade war began. 

A Chinese official explained that the "30 billion-for-30 billion" framework was agreed by Chinese Ministry of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative officials at their May meeting. He said tariffs will be lowered to the Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) rate about 90% of the items, and tariff cuts will be implemented simultaneously by both sides following the completion of their respective domestic legal procedures. An agricultural working group was set up to assess 2-way market access and regulation, with the first meeting to be held before then end of 2026.

China's list of 1,619 items with international "harmonized system" codes and Chinese-language descriptions is difficult to digest and interpret. The list featured agricultural items--with the notable exception of soybeans--plus seafood, wood products, some chemicals, coal, and medical equipment. The U.S. list of Chinese imports features fireworks, home furnishings, appliances, and toys.

The news that soybeans were excluded from China's import list was followed by a 20-cent drop in Chicago soybean futures. Commentators interpreting the exclusion as a Chinese attempt to maximize bargaining power are probably reading too much into it. The lists were assembled to total $30 billion of Chinese imports, and soybeans had a value of $12 billion in U.S.-China trade in 2024. So inclusion of soybeans would have squeezed out hundreds of other items from the $30-billlion list. The soybean exclusion is also consistent with the practice of treating soybeans separately from other products that began with last October's purchase commitment for 25 million tons of soybeans annually. 

The lists use a very disaggregated level of product categories that resulted in the 1619-item list--most of which have little or no trade. I consolidated the categories from the very detailed 8-digit categories to a more aggregated 4-digit listing that still includes 195 categories in the table below (for some categories I used the most important 6-dgit item, i.e. "pistachios" and "almonds" under "other nuts," and "cherries" under "stone fruit.")

The U.S. export value of non-soybean agricultural items totaled $11.6 billion in 2024 and just $3.9 billion in the first seven months of 2026. The largest non-soybean item in 2024 was cotton with $1.47 billion of exports; cotton exports this year are just $187.6 million. Sorghum exports were $1.2 billion in 2024 and $885 million this year. Sorghum is the top export after soybeans this year. U.S. Beef exports were $1.19 billion in 2024 and just $43.4 million this year. 

With only about $4 billion in exports as of July, it looks impossible that the $17-billion target will be reached in 2026 even if it is "prorated." Only 3 months remain in 2026, and it will probably take another month or more to decide which categories will have tariff cuts. The U.S. will not export beef to China this year since the U.S. has tight supplies. Corn and wheat imports are controlled by China's bureaucratic tariff rate quota system, and internal prices of both of those grains are weak. Chinese officials like to minimize imports during the months after harvest of corn and cotton. Even if trade rebounded to its 2024 pace of $12 billion for the year, that would still fall short of $17 billion.

(The Chinese list was probably compiled based on value of imports arriving in China which likely exceeds the value of U.S. exports due to shipping & insurance. I used the U.S. export value because Chinese statistics are cumbersome to work with. I found another big discrepancy: China's import statistics included a category of "food products not elsewhere classified" HS 21069090 with 2024 imports of $1.4 billion and 2026 imports of $867 million that was not included in U.S. export statistics.)

Table--U.S. agricultural exports of items on China's "30-for-30 list", Sept 2026
HS code - item description	Jan-Dec 2024	Jan-July 2026
	Thousand dollars
1201 - Soybeans (not on list)	12,636,613	4,914,518
Total of items below	11,607,724	3,942,608
5201 - Cotton, Not Carded	1,472,591	187,654
1007 - Grain Sorghum	1,232,963	884,811
0202 - Meat Bovine Frozen	1,186,432	43,415
080251 Pistachios	633,824	57,472
1001 - Wheat	484,767	65,955
2309 - Animal Feed Preps	459,939	215,850
4101 - Raw Hides Bovine	420,732	150,809
2106 - Food Preps, Nesoi**	369,664	365,656
1214 - Alfalfa hay	366,215	163,915
020649 Swine Offal	348,040	283,060
0203 - Meat Of Swine	347,616	141,041
0207 - Meat, Poultry	345,665	83,012
1005 -Corn	334,094	8,098
0201 - Meat Bovine Fr/Ch	312,880	628
2301 - Flour, Animal Feed	280,064	177,419
2008 - Fruit, Nut, Prep	266,644	8,164
2401 - Tobacco leaf	241,974	3
0404 - Whey, Natural Milk	221,836	137,209
1602 - Prepared Meat	208,097	90,194
0504 - Guts, Bladders (swine)	207,978	126,514
3502 - Albumins	158,307	80,171
080212 - Almonds	149,788	46,328
1209 - Seed, Fruit, Spores	104,974	34,675
1702 - Sugars Nes, Lactose	101,348	65,049
2204 - Grape Wines	95,186	9,954
4104 - Bovine Leather	87,394	21,839
2303 - Starch, Sugar, Brew	79,957	1,124
3507 - Enzymes, Other	75,432	34,402
1202 - Ground-Nuts	74,380	94,210
0511 - Animal Products Nes	56,973	1,905
0105 - Live Poultry	49,966	9
080299 - Other nuts	48,590	1,714
080929 - Cherries	47,632	13,902
0713 - Veg, Dried Legume	46,637	11,874
3505 - Dextrins	42,858	18,682
0406 - Cheese And Curd	39,610	17,418
1302 - Vegetable Saps, Etc	38,077	17,333
1806 - Chocolate	37,470	33,884
3504 - Peptones, Proteins	34,475	27,562
0402 - Milk Concentrated	33,809	8,660
0901 - Coffee, Coffee Husks	29,096	4,915
1901 - Malt Extract, Food Preps	23,468	10,746
2208 - Liqueur, Spirits	22,949	11,318
2009 - Fruit, Vegie, Juices	19,619	7,276
080529 - Oranges	18,764	10,552
2004 - Vegetables Nes, Prep	17,540	3,859
1211 - Plants, Plant Parts	17,410	7,929
2203 - Beer Made From Malt	17,409	8,466
020629 Beef offal	17,325	2,357
2103 - Sauce, Mustard, Etc	15,949	11,714
2302 - Bran, Sharps Etc	15,326	16,710
1210 - Hop Cones, Fresh	12,086	6,143
5101 - Wool, Not Carded	12,081	7,837
080261 Macadamia	11,516	41
0505 - Feathers, Down	11,497	4,867
0808 - Apples, Pears	10,634	5,152
1207 - Other oil Seeds	9,463	377
1504 - Fish oil	8,897	5,554
4103 - Raw Hides, Skins Nes	8,467	2,676
2105 - Ice Cream	8,413	844
2102 - Yeast, Baking Powder	8,198	3,433
1905 - Baked Bread, Pastry	7,066	5,737
0813 - Fruit, Dried, Nes,	6,899	2,923
1515 - Fixed Veg Fat, Oil	6,749	3,471
1518 - Process Oil, An/Veg	6,536	2,217
0806 - Grapes	6,056	2,709
0103 - Live Swine	5,735	2,377
4102 - Sheep, Lamb Skins	5,226	3,578
0710 - Vegetables Frozen	5,054	3,226
1520 - Glycerol (Glycerine)	4,671	2,015
0712 - Vegetables, Dried	4,372	68
1517 - Margarine	3,816	1,152
1704 - Sugar Confectionery	3,678	6,944
4107 - Leather Other	3,491	1,550
0811 - Fruits And Nuts, Frz	3,447	988
1516 - Fats, Hydrogen	3,374	1,622
0602 - Live Plants Nes	3,269	911
080231 Walnuts	3,144	1,123
2202 - Waters, Non-Alcohol	2,989	4,222
0210 - Meat Salt/Dry/Smoke	2,900	7
3501 - Casein, Caseinates	2,773	363
1301 - Lac, Natural Gums	2,768	192
2101 - Coffee, Tea, Extract	2,736	2,350
1605 - Crustaceans, Prep	2,671	2,013
2304 - Soya-Bean Residue	2,620	1,913
2209 - Vinegar	2,503	1,525
1404 - Vegetable Prod Nesoi	2,292	427
2404 - Tobacco, nicotine, & subs.	2,254	1,279
0405 - Butter, Fats, Milk	2,083	819
1701 - Solid Cane Or Beet	2,049	419
0507 - Ivory,Whalebone Etc,	1,920	2,244
1108 - Starches, Inulin	1,700	444
1106 - Flour, Meal, Legumes	1,607	1,468
2201 - Waters, Unsweetened	1,565	819
1004 - Oats	1,208	132
1805 - Cocoa Powder, Nt Swt	1,082	515
1521 - Vegetable Waxes	990	929
0501 - Hair, Human	961	553
2308 - Vegetable Waste	921	163
1601 - Sausages	894	0
2207 - Ethyl Alcohol	869	592
2007 - Jams, Jellies	864	251
1904 - Cereal Food	836	352
0904 - Pepper (Piper)	771	41
5209 - Woven Cotton Nes	771	413
4302 - Tanned, Furskins	680	51
5111 - Woven Fabric Of Card	591	0
1101 - Wheat Or Meslin Flou	573	79
1604 - Fish, Prepared	544	0
1506 - Animal Fat, Oil	512	486
0508 - Coral, Shell	503	167
5112 - Woven Fabric Of Comb	486	69
1514 - Rape, Colza Oil	479	316
2005 - Vegetables Nes, Prep	472	1,236
0704 - Cabbage, Cauliflower	471	0
0910 - Other Spices	447	61
2205 - Vermouth	440	375
1508 - Ground-Nut Oil	437	320
0902 - Tea	435	644
4115 - Leather, Composite	424	23
1212 - Locust Beans	415	432
1502 - Fats, Bovine, Sheep	401	3
2001 - Vegie, Fruit, Vingar	389	294
2104 - Soups, Broths	356	80
5203 - Cotton, Carded, Comb	342	14
3503 - Gelatin & Derivative	336	177
080550 - Lemons	297	9
1104 - Worked Cereal Grains	282	207
0403 - Buttermilk	266	101
1902 - Pasta, Couscous, Etc	248	170
2002 - Tomatoes Prepared	239	220
0101 - Live Horses/Asses	233	2,492
0601 - Bulbs, Tubers	230	80
1008 - Buckwheat, Millet	224	55
4303 - Clothing, Furskin	215	19
2206 - Fermented Beverages	214	36
2402 - Cigars, Cigarettes	211	0
0707 - Cucumbers, Gherkins	200	0
5212 - Woven Cotton Fabric	193	35
0810 - Fruits Nes, Fresh	179	19
1102 - Cereal Flours Other	171	50
0209 - Pig/Poultry Fat	170	640
1513 - Coconut/Palm Oil	169	53
0604 - Foliage	168	35
0804 - Dates Figs Pineapple	166	25
5208 - Woven Cotton Fabric	152	18
0708 - Leguminous Vegetable	143	31
1505 - Wool Grease	140	121
081010 - Strawberries	135	0
0401 - Milk Not Concentrate	124	195
1105 - Potato Flour, Meal	121	0
0102 - Live Bovine Animals	112	0
1208 - Flour, Meal Of Oleag	111	123
1510 - Olive Oil, Blends	107	6
4106 - Goat Leather,Nohair	107	23
4301 - Raw Furskins, Pieces	107	599
0709 - Vegetables Nes, Fr	106	61
0714 - Manioc, Rrowroot	106	0
1507 - Soya-Bean Oil	95	47
2306 - Oil-Cake	95	0
1006 - Rice	92	0
0701 - Potatoes, Fresh	87	9
1503 - Lard Stearin	81	190
0208 - Meat, Offal, Other	68	0
0905 - Vanilla Beans	62	9
5006 - Silk Yarn Retail	54	0
0711 - Vegetables Preserved	46	0
1512 - Saf/Sun Flower Oil	46	102
4113 - Leather, Other Animals	45	41
0409 - Honey, Natural	44	29
4112 - Leather, Sheep/Lamb	43	0
5202 - Cotton Waste	38	7
2403 - Tobacco Products	35	32
1107 - Malt	33	45
0702 - Tomatoes, Fresh	29	72
5211 - Woven Fabric, <85%	26	13
5204 - Cotton Sewing Thread	20	4
5102 - Fine Or Coarse Hair	19	4
5109 - Yarn Of Wool	18	0
5205 - Cotton Yarn Not Sew	18	36
5210 - Woven Cotton, <85%	18	0
0909 - Seed Spices	14	0
1204 - Linseed	10	10
0906 - Cinnamon	9	4
5105 - Wool And Animal Hair	7	0
5106 - Yarn Of Carded Wool	7	0
0801 - Coconuts, Brazil Nut	4	0
1801 - Cocoa Beans	4	5
4304 - Artificial Fur	4	0
1703 - Molasses	3	23
5001 - Silk-Worm Cocoons	3	0
5207 - Cotton Yarn Retail	3	0
1002 - Rye	0	130
2006 - Fruits, Nuts, Sugar	0	44
0407 - Birds Eggs, In Shell	0	6
0408 - Birds Eggs, Other	0	100
Categories listed on China's "30-for-30" list that will be considered for reduction of U.S.-specific tariffs.
Nonagricultural items on China's list such as seafood, wood products, coal and medical equipment were excluded. **China imports have a value of $1.4 bil imports for 2024 for this category. These are U.S. export values. The $30 billion value for these commodities likely refers to the C&F value on arrival in China.
U.S. exports as reported by USDA, FAS GATS database.