China's Brazil Soy Buys Enabled by 3-year Slide in Prices

China's frenzy to snatch up record volumes of Brazilian soybeans has had surprisingly little impact on the cost of its soybean imports. The record volume of soybeans arriving in China during May-August 2025 had the lowest per-ton cost since pre-pandemic years. As the southern hemisphere export campaign has passed its peak, competition for Brazilian beans is finally heating up. But China's importers have not yet felt impact of rising Brazilian prices. 

In historical context, China's record pace of soybean imports during May-August 2025 stands out clearly, with a total of 50 mmt arriving over those 4 months combined. Most came from Brazil. China now imports from Brazil nearly year-round, but there is still a seasonal pattern. According to Brazilian sources, Brazil's August soybean exports totaled 9.33 mmt--many of which will end up in China this month. That was record-high for August, but down 23.8% from July, suggesting that China's imports of Brazilian beans have passed their seasonal peak. 

Calendar years through Aug 2025. Unit value = ratio of value to volume.
Genetically modified soybeans only. 
Calculated from China customs data.

A 3-year slide in soybean prices enabled China's spike in soybean purchases. China's August import total of 12.3 million metric tons of soybeans had an average value of $444 per metric ton, down from $415 in August 2024, $556 in August 2023, and nearly 40% lower than the $723 in August 2022. 

This year's unit value of imported soybeans in China fell slightly as Brazilian soybeans began arriving in April 2025. The average value of imported soybeans fell from $459 per metric ton in March to $438 in May and $435 in June. The average import value then edged up to $444 in August. The August cost was still well below the average a year earlier. The relatively low prices for Chinese buyers this year reflect the huge supplies in Brazil. 

Average value of soybean arrivals is ratio of import value to volume.
Brazil spot price is monthly average of cash price in Paranaguá reported by CEPEA.
Chart shows previous month's Brazilian price.

The decline in cost of Chinese soybean imports is broadly consistent with a decline in cash prices in Paranaguá, Brazil since 2022 (Brazilian prices are lagged 1 month in the chart below to line up with import prices of beans that take a month or so to reach China). Brazilian prices bottomed out at $373 in January 2025 before rising 10.6% to $413 by July.  

Recently Brazil's Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA) reported rising price premiums for exported soybeans due to intensified competition between Brazilian and foreign buyers. 

The 2-percent increase in cost of China's soybean imports between June and August only dimly reflects rising spot prices in Brazil. The average Brazilian price rose 4.2% in August to reach $430, and the price is up another 1% in the first week of September.

While Chinese importers have accumulated a reported 6.8 mmt of imported soybean inventories over the last 3 months, many of the beans have been processed into oil and meal, depressing prices of both. If imported beans rise in cost with no rebound in prices of oil or meal, Chinese crushers could face losses.

A Chinese news article last week reported that Brazilian soybean shipments to China had been quoted at premiums of $2.69 per bushel for October shipment and $2.75 for November. Crushing margins for Brazilian soybeans were slightly negative for October and November. According to that report, China's soybean purchases through October were completed but purchases for November to January were still being made. 

Red Hot China Soy Imports Closing Out Crop Year; Grain Imports Stone Cold

 China imported 12.28 million metric tons of soybeans in August 2025. This is the fourth month in a row of record or near-record imports since South American beans began arriving in large quantities in May.  With one month left in the marketing year, China's cumulative total of imports for 2024/25 is 96.5 mmt (about 3 percent more than the same period in 2023/24). It looks likely that China will equal or surpass last year's 105 mmt market year soybean import total. 

Source: China customs data.

China's customs administration has not released August data by trade partner, but it is likely that nearly all of these imports came from South America. With minimal amounts of U.S. soybeans expected to arrive in August or September, China's total imports of U.S. soybeans are likely to hit 24.2 mmt, a market share of about 23 percent. 

Soybean imports are not likely to be sustained at this torrid pace in the upcoming 2025/26 marketing year as the northern hemisphere harvest progresses. As is widely reported, Chinese buyers have not booked any new-crop U.S. soybeans, but estimates are that China will receive 10-to-11 mmt of primarily South American soybeans in September.

In contrast to soybean imports, China has slashed its cereal grain imports this year. August 2025 cereal grain imports were just 1.8 mmt (including wheat, corn, rice, sorghum, barley, and tubers). That was down 36% from 2.84 mmt in August 2024. For October 2024-August 2025 China's cumulative cereal grain imports are 24.9 mmt, down 60% year-over-year (the October-September total lumps in wheat which is on a different market-year from fall-harvested grains).

Cereal grain = China's "grain" category less soybeans.
Calculated from monthly China customs reports.

China's Soybean Deficit Risk is "Manageable" Industry Report Says

The risk of a soybean shortage is "manageable" if U.S.-China trade negotiations remain at an impasse, according to a tour of cooking oil manufacturers in southern China conducted by industry analysts in August. Chinese edible oils processors are watching negotiations and concerned about Brazilian and U.S. soybean supplies, but the report's authors saw little risk of an oilseed market shortfall until March 2026.

Industry analysts associated with MySteel agricultural commodities visited edible oils processing facilities in China's Guangdong and Guangxi Provinces--two important points of entry for oilseeds and edible oil imports--during August 2025. MySteel is one of the more objective providers of agricultural market information in China. The report was directed at futures market investors.

China has become reliant on imported soybeans, rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and palm oil. Guangdong, a key export manufacturing hub, has 14 edible refineries. Guangxi borders Vietnam, and Guangxi's ports of Qingzhou and Fangcheng have been gaining in importance as entry points for oilseeds, feeds and edible oils. Guangxi supplies edible oils by containers to landlocked provinces of southwestern China, including Yunnan and Guizhou, and by liquid bags to Sichuan. 

The Guangxi processors are operating at 65% of capacity and the Guangdong processors are at 62%. Rapeseed processors, however, are operating at just 13% of capacity as imports of Canadian canola seed and oil have been pared back by tariffs. The report said it is difficult to buy canola from Canada and a policy breakthrough is needed to buy Australian rapeseed.

According to the report, demand for fats and oils is currently weak. In May 2025 Xi Jinping ordered government officials to forego alcohol at official meals and to cut back on government-sponsored meals. This austerity measure cut back banqueting at high-end restaurants and crimped restaurant profits through loss of high-margin liquor sales. The report said high-end restaurants are shifting to take-out, mid-range restaurants are in decline, and business is rising for street vendors. Flagging restaurant business reduces demand for cooking oil. The report said consumers are purchasing cooking oil in smaller bottles than usual. 

(The report did not address the street vendor issue, but demand for oils may be curtailed by street vendors' tendency to use low-quality oils and recycled "gutter oil.")

The survey of 8 processors in Guangxi found that their soybean inventories stood at 596,000 metric tons in August, up 178,000 mt from the same period last year. Soybean meal inventory was 90,000 mt, up 15,000 mt from a year ago. Commercial soybean oil inventories were estimated at 92,500 mt in Guangxi and 218,000 mt in Guangdong, but they did not report year-over-year changes. The large inventories may reflect seasonal low consumption during summer months and processing of large volumes of soybeans that arrived from Brazil since May. The opening of schools and two major holidays in September-October could see stronger consumption. 

Soybean oil is the cheapest oil in China now and its use in blended oils is therefore rising. Rapeseed oil supplies are limited by high tariffs on imports of Canadian canola oil and canola seed. Indonesian and Malaysia biofuel policies have boosted the price of palm oil. According to the report, the proportion of palm oil in blended oil has dropped from 50% to just 2%. Rapeseed oil is the most expensive, so it is also being eliminated from blended oil. The report noted that demand for rapeseed oil is limited outside regions where it is favored for its strong taste (along the Yangtze River and in northwestern provinces). In Guangdong Province peanut oil--one of China's most expensive oils--is preferred.

Demand for soybean meal has been growing due to its cost-efficiency. Its inclusion in pig feed, for example, has reportedly grown from 12% to 15%. Rapeseed meal is used mainly in fish feed, and the low price of soybean meal vs. rapeseed meal has prompted more use of soybean meal. The peak season for fish farming is from July to October, so demand for rapeseed meal will tail off as cold weather sets in. The report said there has not yet been any impact from the government's order to limit hog weights to no more than 120 kg.

Edible oil processors are currently purchasing mainly Brazilian soybeans. The report estimated that 12.1 million metric tons of soybeans were imported to China in August (10.7 mmt from Brazil, 1.4 mmt from Argentina, 0 from the U.S.). September arrivals were estimated at 10.5 mmt, October 9 mmt, and 7.5 mmt in November. Taking into account imports of soybean meal, the report's authors pronounced the supply risk as "manageable." They did see risk of a soybean supply shortfall in March 2026.

According to the report, if trade tensions with the United States ease, U.S. soybeans may gain commercial value due to their superior quality and competitive price (after adding a 10% tariff the landed price of U.S. soybeans is only 100 yuan higher than Brazilian soybeans).