Soy Imports from Brazil in Seasonal Lull; Slide in Market Prices Suggests Spring Rebound

China's soybean imports dipped to 8.1 million metric tons in November 2025, and the calendar year total for January-November hit 103.79 mmt. November 2025 imports were up from 7.15 mmt from a year ago, and January-November 2025 imports are up from last year's pace of 97.1 mmt during the same period.

November's import volume was the second monthly decline in a row, reflecting seasonal decline in shipments from Brazil. In November China imported 5.85 mmt from Brazil, down from nearly 11 mmt in September 2025. Brazil supplied 72% of China's November soybean imports. Imports from Argentina increased marginally to 1.78 mmt in November, while imports from Canada increased slightly to 16,630 metric tons. Imports from Uruguay, Russia and Ukraine dropped in November. China had no imports of U.S. soybeans during November. The first shipments of U.S. beans since the resumption of purchases last month likely will show up in Chinese customs data in January. 

Compiled from China Customs data.

Compiled from China Customs data.

Soybean imports from Brazil have been rising in price as its shipping season winds down. The average value per ton of Brazilian soybeans arriving in China bottomed out at $431 per ton in June and has since risen to $474 per ton in November, a cumulative increase of 9.8%. This is consistent with Brazilian customs data which shows a rise from $384 per ton shipped to China in April to $436 per ton shipped in November, a cumulative increase of 13.6%. (There is a 2-month lag between Brazilian shipments and arrivals in China, so the increases in Brazilian beans during October-November will be reflected in China's December-January import data.)

Compiled from China and Brazil customs data.

During December Brazilian prices have been declining again as prospects of another record soybean crop in Brazil solidify. Brazil's Paranaguá FOB quote peaked at about $12.40 per bushel at the end of November, a slight premium over the U.S. Gulf price. Since then, the Paranaguá quote has fallen below $10.50 per bu. CBOT and U.S. Gulf FOB quotes fell in parallel as euphoria over underwhelming Chinese purchases deflated and prospects for the upcoming Brazilian were strengthened by weather and planting progress. Paranaguá FOB fell marginally below U.S. Gulf quotes last week. Chinese estimates of CNF costs followed a similar pattern.  

Compiled from International Grains Council web site.

Beans from the upcoming Brazil harvest will likely begin pouring into China and appear in April-May Chinese customs data in a big way. As this blog previously reported, China is dumping some reserves into the domestic market to make way for imported U.S. beans (buyers are to take delivery by March-April). Chinese ports and crushers have some inventories and soy meal inventories are also high. China's markets for meal and oil are already glutted, but final demand will soften after the mid-February Chinese New Year holiday. That could shape up for another steep drop in prices next Spring.