China Admits Drought Impact; Proclaims Bumper Wheat Harvest

Another bumper wheat crop of 138.16 million metric tons was proclaimed for 2025 in the "summer grain" report released by the National Bureau of Statistics. A Bureau official said the bumper harvest lays the foundation for stabilizing the year's grain output and will help China cope with the "complex and severe international situation" while promoting recovery of the economy.

The Bureau acknowledged that serious drought impacted wheat production in Shaanxi, Henan, and Jiangsu provinces but insisted that irrigation and other mitigation minimized losses. Production increased in Sichuan, Shandong, Hebei, and Hubei Provinces. An adjustment in cropping structure reduced wheat output in Xinjiang. National wheat production was down 167,000 metric tons from the previous year, a decline of less than -0.1%, according to the Bureau. 

China's Summer Grain production, 2025
Category	Item	Unit	2025	Change
Summer grains	Production	1000 metric tons	149,738.0	-153.0
	Area	1000 hectares	26,578.4	-34.7
	Yield	KG per hectare	5,633.8	1.6
of which: Wheat	Production	1000 metric tons	138,160.0	-167.0
	Area	1000 hectares	23,073.3	-17.4
	Yield	KG per hectare	5,987.9	-2.7
Summer grains include wheat, barley, oats, buckwheat, beans, cow peas, potatoes.
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics.

The Bureau said winter wheat comprised 134.5 million metric tons of the year's wheat harvest and 22.6 million hectares of wheat area. 

Other summer grains include barley, oats, buckwheat, beans, and cow peas. Overall summer grain output was 149.7 million metric tons, down 153,000 metric tons from last year. A Bureau official explained that summer grain planting was down slightly due to some switching from summer grains to fall-harvested crops. Note that China only reports planted area, not harvested area. Yields are measured by taking cuttings just before harvest; it is unclear whether survey teams would measure yields from fields where crops had failed due to drought.

The Bureau official credited Xi Jinping's leadership and local officials' implementation of food security responsibilities for the bumper harvest. The official cited the minimum price purchase policy, the cultivated farmland protection subsidy for grain farmers, crop insurance subsidies, high-standard field construction, and a spring crop-spraying program for shoring up production. 

This year's relatively low prices indicate that China has plentiful wheat supplies. China's Food and Commodity Reserve Administration data shows average wheat procurement price July 1 was about 3 percent below their level from last year. However, there has been no drop in wheat prices following the harvest that is common in normal years. The average flour price is about 4 percent below the year-ago level. The Administration has reported the same flour price for nearly 3 months.

Data from China National Food and Commodity Reserve Administration.

An Economic Daily commentary reported that 50 million metric tons of wheat have been procured so far this summer. Henan, Anhui, and Hebei Provinces have purchased a combined 1.6 million metric tons of wheat--less than 4 percent of the total procured--at the government-set minimum price to assure farmers that prices will not fall any lower. The commentator explained that the minimum price is now set every two years to build in long term expectations and prevent fluctuations and speculation.